The highly anticipated Premier League fixtures for the 2023/24 season were announced just days ago, sparking excitement among football fans across the country.
Although many will eagerly anticipate clashes against their local rivals or the ‘Big Six’ clubs, the league plays host to several mathematical ‘Hidden Gems’ – the unexpected fixtures that have historically provided high-scoring entertainment.
To shine a light on the other fixtures to keep an eye out for this season as fans look to snap up match tickets, leading Sports travel company Sportsbreaks.com has joined forces with esteemed mathematician and Oxford University professor Dr Tom Crawford.
By analysing data sets from the past five seasons, Dr Crawford, also known as Tom Rocks Maths, has identified the fixtures with the highest probability for fans to witness goal-filled encounters across the 2023/24 campaign.
Sportsbreaks.com offer hotel and ticket breaks for a range of Premier League teams including Manchester United, Liverpool FC and Chelsea FC. They take all the hassle out of planning a trip to see your favourite team live! With an official match ticket and a minimum one night stay in a handpicked hotel, you’re sure to have an experience of a lifetime.
Every year, fans are amazed by shocking 9-0 thrashings and exhilarating 5-4 battles that seemingly come out of nowhere, but Dr Tom Crawford’s research has unveiled there are some teams that offer these thrilling games season after season.
Using confidence intervals and percentage calculations for each game from the past five seasons, the University of Oxford mathematician was able to create his definitive list of eye-catching contests.
So, which teams and fixtures should football fans consider booking tickets for if they want guaranteed entertainment? Take a look at this short video below or click here to watch the full Sky Sports interview.
Amanda Brandariz, Head of Sportsbreaks.com said:
“Football is an unpredictable sport and while you can never be certain on the outcome of a game, identifying the most thrilling fixtures is invaluable for fans planning their ticket purchases for the upcoming season.
“While fixtures featuring the top teams always generate high demand, revealing Dr. Tom Crawford’s expert mathematical predictions for high-scoring games is a great way for fans to make sure they are booking tickets for an unforgettable football experience.”
Dr Tom Crawford, Oxford University professor commented:
“As a passionate football fan, being able to use my mathematical skills to analyse the beautiful game is a dream come true!
“Using the data for the past 5 seasons, I’ve been able to make a prediction of the expected number of goals in each fixture next year based on a Poisson distribution model.
“Given the uncertainty of sport, the model outputs a ‘confidence interval’ which is a range of values the true value is expected to lie between. This means each prediction comes with an associated probability or likelihood of happening.
“For example, there is a 59% chance of 4 or more goals when Manchester City plays Newcastle making it one of the most hotly anticipated fixtures of 2023/24!”
Packages from Sportsbreaks.com are now officially on sale for the 2023-24 Premier League season and it’s time for you to book! Don’t miss out on your favourite fixtures and see your club in action this season. Book your package here.
Methodology
The maths can be explained by concentrating on one particular team/fixture, but applies to all of the analysis.
Manchester City v Newcastle
The number of goals per game is modelled using a Poisson distribution. This is a probability distribution which is commonly used to model the number of goals in a football game. It requires only one input which is the average value x.
Using a technique called “maximum likelihood estimation” the sample mean is the best estimate for this. The sample mean is calculated as the average of the data points being used in the calculation. For Man City v Newcastle this is 4.1 goals per game, which means here x=4.1. The x-axis (horizontal) shows the number of goals, and the y-axis (vertical) shows the probability of that number of goals being scored in a game.
With the distribution, we are able to estimate the value of the underlying (and unknown) average using the confidence intervals. Every game between Man City and Newcastle contains a number of goals, The values for the past games is known, but not the ones in the future. Together they form the ‘population’.
By modelling the data in the population as a Poisson distribution, it is possible to construct an estimate for the true average value. The estimated average value above is made by using the data from the past 5 seasons, but to extend this into the future the true average has to be thought as being unknown.
The confidence intervals provide a range of values for which the 95% confidence that the true average lies in. In practice, there is 95% belief that the true average number of goals per game lies in this range.
Since the true average represents the expected number of goals in a match, this is the value to use when predicting what is expected to happen in the future. This means there is 95% confidence that the expected number of goals in the next Man City v Newcastle game will contain between 3.0 and 5.6 goals.
Now we’ve predicted the highest-scoring fixtures… why not book your package today? Call us now on 0333 2309115 or contact us.
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